Latest NTS results confirm major shifts in rail trip making
Shift towards younger people and leisure trips rather than commuters
The full version of the Department for Transport (DfT)'s National Travel Survey for 2023 was published at the end of the summer, and contains new data on how, when and why we travel. The results are based on a household survey which this year had an improved sample size of just over 14,000 people.
The figures point to a continuing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall demand by all modes was estimated at 915 trips per person per year (tpppy), increasing by six per cent since 2022. However, travel volumes remain four per cent lower than in 2019, when the figure stood at 952.6.
Focusing on the rail market in England, the overall trip rate forged ahead by 63 per cent, reaching 18.3 tpppy compared with 11.2 in 2022. The last pre-Covid figure recorded in 2019 was 21.2, leaving a shortfall of 13.8 per cent.
Analysis of responses on people’s reasons for making their journey, trip rates for most purposes increased between 2022 and the latest data, with the overall increase being 16.1 per cent. The exceptions were business travel (down by 13.1 per cent) and shopping (8.4 per cent). The business travel figures will be particularly disappointing.
When comparing the 2023 trip rates with those of 2019, we see a sharp fall in many categories but increases in travel for education (up 59 per cent) and for leisure (up 14.8%). The falls range from 54.7 per cent for business travel and 32.0 per cent for commuting to 15.4 per cent for shopping. Table A below tracks the changes, looking at the figures for 2010, 2019, 2022 and 2023. Many of the gains made between 2010 and 2019 have been wiped out by Covid and its aftermath. The bright spots are the growth in education and leisure trips.
The trip rate for business travel has fallen back sharply, wiping out a decade of growth and is now below what it was in 2010. The change has wiped out a decade of steady growth and the 2023 figure of 0.9 tpppy is lower than in any year since 2002. The loss of full fare and first class passenger journeys reflects this decline, which is particularly damaging in revenue terms.
Table A: Changes in Trip Making by Surface Rail since 2010
Surface Rail Trips per person per year
| Year | Commuting | Business | Education | Shopping | Other Escort | Personal Business | Leisure | Total |
| 2010 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 19.5 |
| 2019 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 5.6 | 21.2 |
| 2022 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 15.4 |
| 2023 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 18.3 |
| Since 2019 | (32.0%) | (54.7%) | 59.0% | (15.4%) | (0.3%) | (15.3%) | 14.8% | (13.8%) |
| Since 2022 | 17.1% | (13.1%) | 74.5% | (8.4%) | 61.9% | 20.2% | 18.4% | 19.2% |
Table B: Percentage Breakdown of Trips by Purpose
| Year | Commuting | Business | Education | Shopping | Other Escort | Personal Business | Leisure | Total |
| 2010 | 45.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 26.0 | 100 |
| 2019 | 47.0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 26.2 | 100 |
| 2022 | 37.8 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 35.2 | 100 |
| 2023 | 37.1 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 35.0 | 100 |
Source: Author’s Analysis of National Travel Survey 2023, Department for Transport, Sheet NTS0409.
Figure 1: Journey Purposes compared: 2023 v 2019 (% Market Share)
Translating trip rates into a percentage breakdown, we see from Table B that the importance of commuting has diminished, now accounting for 37.1 per cent of trips, ten points lower than in 2019. The growth in leisure travel means that this now accounts for 35.0 per cent of passenger journeys. Business travel has fallen back from 9.8 per cent of trips to just 5.2 per cent. The increased importance of education is notable, whilst shopping trips saw a fall in 2023, offsetting the apparent recovery in 2022.
Demographic Changes
The new survey results confirm the trends previously noted for rail users to get younger, with substantial falls in trip rates amongst older age groups. As can be seen in table C below, all age groups above 30 show falls between 2019 and 2023, with the largest being 37 per cent for people aged between 50 and 59, followed by 30-39 year olds, 32.6 per cent down. The switch to younger people can be seen with a 51 per cent increase in rail travel by the under 17s, a 16 per cent increase amongst 17-20 year olds, and a 17 per cent boost amongst 21-29 year olds. As a result of these shifts, we estimate that the 21-29 cohort now accounts for 22.5 per cent of rail patronage, up from 17.8 per cent in 2019.
There are some significant differences in behaviour between men and women. In 2010, males accounted for 55.4 per cent of rail travel, leaving women with 44.6 per cent. Based on the 2023 survey, we estimate that this has shifted to 50.8 per cent for the men and 49.2 per cent for women.
Table C: Surface Rail Trip Rates by Age and Gender (trips per person per year)
| 0 to 16 | 17 to 20 | 21 to 29 | 30 to 39 | 40 to 49 | 50 to 59 | 60 to 69 | 70 and over | All ages | |
| All People | |||||||||
| 2010 | 7.1 | 29.2 | 34.6 | 37.0 | 21.1 | 19.4 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 19.5 |
| 2019 | 6.5 | 36.4 | 31.5 | 36.0 | 30.3 | 24.4 | 15.5 | 7.2 | 21.2 |
| 2023 | 9.8 | 42.4 | 36.9 | 24.3 | 22.8 | 15.4 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 18.3 |
| % change since 2010 | 37.6 | 45.3 | 6.9 | (34.4) | 7.9 | (20.9) | (4.1) | 12.9 | (6.2) |
| % change since 2019 | 51.1 | 16.5 | 17.3 | (32.6) | (24.8) | (37.0) | (27.0) | (12.5) | (13.8) |
| Females | |||||||||
| 2010 | 7.7 | 30.1 | 35.0 | 27.4 | 17.7 | 15.8 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 17.1 |
| 2019 | 6.9 | 27.1 | 31.3 | 28.5 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 15.2 | 6.6 | 17.7 |
| 2023 | 9.3 | 54.5 | 40.4 | 22.6 | 20.3 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 17.9 |
| % change since 2010 | 20.8 | 80.8 | 15.4 | (17.6) | 14.5 | (27.7) | 7.8 | 20.5 | 4.7 |
| % change since 2019 | 35.0 | 101.4 | 29.3 | (20.8) | 8.6 | (43.8) | (29.3) | (2.9) | 1.4 |
| Males | |||||||||
| 2010 | 6.5 | 28.3 | 34.1 | 46.8 | 24.6 | 23.0 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 22.0 |
| 2019 | 6.1 | 45.3 | 31.7 | 43.6 | 42.2 | 28.5 | 15.7 | 7.8 | 24.9 |
| 2023 | 10.2 | 30.4 | 33.4 | 26.1 | 25.4 | 19.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 18.7 |
| % change since 2010 | 56.3 | 7.6 | (2.1) | (44.3) | 3.3 | (15.7) | (13.1) | 4.0 | (14.8) |
| % change since 2019 | 68.4 | (32.8) | 5.3 | (40.2) | (39.8) | (31.8) | (24.8) | (22.4) | (24.8) |
Source: National Travel Survey 2023, Department for Transport, sheet NTS0601.
Figure 2: Rail User Age Profiles Compared: 2023 v 2019
Frequency of Use
As might be expected given the fall in commuting, the NTS shows a shift in the frequency of use of the railways, though not perhaps as large as might have been expected. The figures are in Table D below. The comparison between 2019 and 2023 shows a fall in those travelling three or more times a week from 5.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent, whilst there has been an increase in the proportion travelling once or twice a week from 3.7 per cent to 4.3 per cent. All the less frequent options show a reduction in the proportion, except to those who answered “less than once a year or never”, which went up from 41 per cent to 42 per cent.
Table D: Frequency of Use of Surface Rail Services (Percentages)
| 3 or more times a week | Once or twice a week | Less than once a week, more than once or twice a month | Once or twice a month | Less than once a month, more than once or twice a year | Once or twice a year | Less than once a year or never | Total | |
| 2010 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 15.5 | 20.5 | 43.4 | 100 |
| 2019 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 11.2 | 16.2 | 18.1 | 41.0 | 100 |
| 2023 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 15.9 | 18.4 | 42.0 | 100 |
Source: National Travel Survey 2023, Department for Transport, sheet NTS0313.