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NTS 2023 shows huge change in rail use

Analysis of journey purpose, demographic profile and frequency of use reveal radical shifts

The latest full version of the National Travel Survey, published by the Department for Transport at the end of the summer, offers further confirmation, if it were needed, of the radical changes imposed on the market for rail services by the Covid-19 pandemic almost five years ago. Patterns of use by journey purpose and demography have been radically altered, and almost two decades of steady growth in rail trip making reversed. More details can be found in NTS Rail Analysis 2023.

This both echoes and reinforces the latest figures from the DfT, which show that in the three months to the beginning of November this year, patronage averaged just under 88 per cent of pre-pandemic levels excluding the Elizabeth Line. This compared with 87 per cent across the whole of 2023 and 86.6 per cent for the whole of this year to date. The network is inching towards recovery, but it is a slow process.

Analysis of the NTS results helps to explain the shortfall, mapping changes in journey purpose, in the age and gender of rail users and the frequency of use of the network. The loss of commuting trips is well understood, given the moves towards working from home and hybrid working.  We estimate the loss of some 256 million trips a year compared with 2019 – more than the overall national shortfall of 215 million. Business travel accounts for the loss of another 94 million, but these are offset by gains in education (77 million) and leisure travel (80 million).

The shifts in the age profile of users both reflects and influences this. The fall in commuter trips can be linked with the decline in trip rates amongst those between 30 and 59, whilst the increase amongst the under 17s can be linked to the rise in education and leisure travel, the latter associated with more weekend family trips. The fall in trip rates amongst older people mirrors that seen in bus travel and can be attributed to ongoing nervousness about infection risks and other changes in travel habits brought on by the lockdowns.

As the new government settles in, and the new form of ownership begins to evolve following the passage of the legislation to renationalise the passenger railway, it is clear that there are many challenges and uncertainties ahead – the country clearly faces a difficult economic and fiscal outlook, which will inevitably impact on the funding available for services, maintenance and investment. In the longer term, there is the AI revolution, the Net Zero targets and the impact of quantum computing – all of which will impact on the way we live and the way we travel. Flexibility and speed of response will be essential. Let’s hope that the new ownership framework can deliver this.

* - The NTS is a household survey of personal travel, from data collected via interviews and a seven-day travel diary, which enables analysis of patterns and trends. In the year ending December 2023, the survey captured responses from 14,257 individuals covering 192,848 trips. The National Travel Survey results are tables are available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-travel-survey-2023.