New NTS data confirms rail revival

Shift towards younger people and leisure trips continues

New figures from the Deparment of Transport point to a continuing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic across all modes of transport. In the English rail market, the overall trip rate increased by 13 per cent, reaching 20.7 trips per person per year, up from 18.3 in 2022. The last pre-Covid figure recorded in 2019 was 21.2, leaving a shortfall of just 2.5%.

The reuslts come from the full version of the 2024 National Travel Survey (NTS) ftom the Department for Transport (DfT), which was published at the end of the summer, and contains new data on how, when and why we travel in England. The results are based on a household survey which this year had an improved sample size of just under 17,000 people.

The latest NTS offers further confirmation of the strong recovery in patronage staged by the rail industry over the last three years, as it settles into a new pattern of use by journey purpose, whilst the  demographics of users seems to be reverting to previous patterns.

This both echoes and reinforces the latest figures from the DfT, which show that in the three months to the end of August this year, patronage averaged just under 93 per cent of pre-pandemic levels excluding the Elizabeth Line. This compared with 85.8 per cent across the whole of 2024 and 87.9 per cent for the whole of this year to date. The network is moving towards recovery, but it is still a slow process.

Analysis of the NTS results helps to explain the shortfall, mapping changes in journey purpose, in the age and gender of rail users and the frequency of use of the network. The loss of commuting trips is well understood, given the moves towards working from home and hybrid working.  We estimate the loss of some 226 million trips a year compared with 2019 – more than the overall national shortfall of 141 million. Business travel accounts for the loss of another 89 million, and shopping another nine million,  but these are offset by gains in education (85 million) and leisure travel (104 million).

The shifts in the age profile of users both reflects and influences this. The fall in commuter trips can be linked with the decline in trip rates amongst those between 30 and 59, whilst the increase amongst the under 17s can be linked to the rise in education and leisure travel. The recovery in trip rates amongst older people mirrors is in sharp contrast to the falls seen in bus travel, and will also have contributed to the increase in leisure journeys – which now, by the way, account for almost as high a proportion of trips as commuting – in sharp contrast to 2019, when there was a twenty point gap between the two.

Over the twelve months since the election, the new government has got its feet under the table, has legislated to renationalise the passenger railway and taken the first steps to do so. However, the precise terms under which the planned new national body will take office – and when – seems to remain uncertain. And it is clear that the new organisation, when formed, will face many challenges and uncertainties. The country still faces a difficult economic and fiscal outlook, which is already impacting on the funding available for services, maintenance and investment. It is difficult to see how that might change, certainly over the next five years. Meanwhile, we’re already seeing an impact from the AI revolution on patterns of employment, with the impact of quantum computing still to play out. Then there’s the ongoing issue of Net Zero targets amid signs that any consensus which existed over these is beginning to break down.  All these changes will impact on the way we live and the way we travel. To meet these existential challenges, the watchwords will need to be flexibility and speed of response. Let’s hope that the new public sector organisations can deliver this.

For a more detailed look at the survey results, see the article Latest NTS results confirm ongoing rail recovery