Latest NTS results confirm ongoing rail recovery
Shift towards younger people and leisure trips continues
The full version of the Department for Transport (DfT) was published at the end of the summer, and contains new data on how, when and why we travel. The results are based on a household survey which this year had an improved sample size of just under 17,000 people.
The figures point to a continuing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall demand by all modes was estimated at 921.8 trips per person per year (tpppy), increasing by 0.7 per cent from 2023. However, travel volumes remain 3.2 per cent lower than in 2019, when the figure stood at 952.6.
Focusing on the rail market in England, the overall trip rate increased by 13 per cent, reaching 20.7 tpppy compared with 18.3 in 2022. The last pre-Covid figure recorded in 2019 was 21.2, leaving a much reduced shortfall of 2.5 per cent.
Analysis of responses on people’s reasons for making their journey, trip rates for all purposes except one increased between 2023 and the latest data, with the overall increase being 19.6 per cent. The exception was education (down by a hefty 41 per cent, but reverting to its long-term average, making 2023’s figure look like an outlier). Largest growth came in commuting (up 23.3 per cent) and business travel (45.4 per cent).
When comparing the 2024 trip rates with those of 2019, we still see a sharp fall in three categories but increases for the others. The falls range from 22.7 per cent for commuting and 19.7 per cent for business travel to 6.0 per cent for education. There was growth in shopping, escorting, personal business and leisure travel. Table A below tracks the changes, looking at the figures for 2010, 2019, 2023 and 2024. Many of the gains made between 2010 and 2019 have been wiped out by Covid and its aftermath. The bright spots are the growth in education and leisure trips.
The trip rate for business travel has recovered somewhat from its post-Covid doldrums, so that it is back above the levels seen in 2010, albeit short of a full recovery. This could be particularly welcome in the Treasury, where the loss of full fare and first class passenger journeys was particularly damaging in revenue terms.
Table A: Changes in Trip Making by Surface Rail since 2010
Surface Rail Trips per person per year
|
Year to 31 March |
Commuting |
Business |
Education |
Shopping |
Other Escort |
Personal Business |
Leisure |
Total |
|
2010 |
8.9 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
5.1 |
19.5 |
|
2019 |
10.0 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
5.6 |
21.2 |
|
2023 |
6.8 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
6.4 |
18.3 |
|
2024 |
7.7 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
7.4 |
20.7 |
|
Since 2019 |
(22.7%) |
(19.7%) |
(6.0%) |
19.3% |
25.1% |
11.5% |
33.6% |
(2.5%) |
|
Since 2023 |
23.3% |
45.4% |
(26.4%) |
23.5% |
30.4% |
63.5% |
20.0% |
19.6% |
Source: National Travel Survey 2024, Department for Transport, sheet NTS0409.
Table B: Percentage Breakdown of Trips by Purpose
|
Year to 31 March |
Commuting |
Business |
Education |
Shopping |
Other Escort |
Personal Business |
Leisure |
Total |
|
2010 |
45.8 |
6.9 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
1.7 |
6.3 |
26.0 |
100.0 |
|
2019 |
47.0 |
9.8 |
6.9 |
5.0 |
0.9 |
4.1 |
26.2 |
100.0 |
|
2023 |
37.1 |
5.2 |
12.8 |
4.9 |
1.1 |
4.0 |
35.0 |
100.0 |
|
2024 |
37.3 |
8.1 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
1.2 |
4.7 |
36.0 |
100.0 |
Source: Author’s Analysis of National Travel Survey 2024, Department for Transport, Sheet NTS0409.
Translating trip rates into a percentage breakdown, we see from Table B that the importance of commuting has diminished, now accounting for 37.3 per cent of trips, ten points lower than in 2019. The growth in leisure travel means that this now accounts for 36.0 per cent of passenger journeys. Business travel has recovered to 8.1 per cent of trips, but still below the 9.8 per cent peak in 2019. Shopping trips also recovered, and moved beyond the 2019 trip rate.
The new survey results shows that rail users to get less middle aged, with strong increases in trip rates amongst the under 16s and those in their twenties in 2024 compared with 2019. Usage amongst people aged 60-69 and over 70s has also risen above pre-Covid levels. As can be seen in table C below, though, people aged 17-20, and between 30 and 59, are still making fewer trips. As a result of these shifts, we estimate that the 21-29 cohort now accounts for 22.0 per cent of rail patronage, up from 17.5 per cent in 2019. They are the most significant age group, closely followed by the 30-39 group on 21.3% (down from 22.8 per cent in 2019. Over the year since the previous survey, two groups – the under 17s and those aged 17-20 have seen small falls in their trip rates; all other groups recorded an increased led by the over 70s on 57.3 per cent.
There seems to have been a reversion to a more traditional gender balance between men and women in rail use. In 2010, males accounted for 55.4 per cent of rail travel, leaving women with 44.6 per cent. In the 2023 survey, this has shifted to 51.5 per cent for the men and 48.5 per cent for women. In 2024, however, the balance seems to have shifted back again to 55.8 per cent men and 44.2 per cent women – virtually the same as 2010.
Table C: Surface Rail Trip Rates by Age and Gender
Surface Rail Trips per person per year
|
0 to 16 |
17 to 20 |
21 to 29 |
30 to 39 |
40 to 49 |
50 to 59 |
60 to 69 |
70 and over |
All ages |
|
|
All People |
|||||||||
|
2010 |
7.1 |
29.2 |
34.6 |
37.0 |
21.1 |
19.4 |
11.8 |
5.6 |
19.5 |
|
2019 |
6.5 |
36.4 |
31.5 |
36.0 |
30.3 |
24.4 |
15.5 |
7.2 |
21.2 |
|
2023 |
8.9 |
34.2 |
34.9 |
23.6 |
21.5 |
16.0 |
11.9 |
4.8 |
17.3 |
|
2024 |
8.8 |
31.1 |
42.8 |
34.1 |
27.8 |
23.2 |
16.7 |
7.5 |
22.1 |
|
Change 19-24 |
35.7% |
(14.7%) |
35.9% |
(5.1%) |
(8.3%) |
(4.9%) |
8.0% |
4.4% |
3.9% |
|
Change 23-24 (%) |
(1.0%) |
(9.1%) |
22.6% |
44.8% |
29.4% |
45.1% |
40.2% |
57.3% |
27.5% |
|
Males |
|||||||||
|
2010 |
6.5 |
28.3 |
34.1 |
46.8 |
24.6 |
23.0 |
13.6 |
5.8 |
22.0 |
|
2019 |
6.1 |
45.3 |
31.7 |
43.6 |
42.2 |
28.5 |
15.7 |
7.8 |
24.9 |
|
2023 |
9.3 |
26.8 |
34.2 |
26.4 |
24.6 |
18.2 |
12.5 |
4.6 |
18.2 |
|
2024 |
9.9 |
25.6 |
44.0 |
40.5 |
33.2 |
29.5 |
19.7 |
8.7 |
25.1 |
|
Change 19-24 |
62.8% |
(43.4%) |
38.8% |
(7.1%) |
(21.3%) |
3.3% |
25.4% |
11.5% |
0.9% |
|
Change 23-24 |
6.0% |
(4.2%) |
28.9% |
53.2% |
35.2% |
62.3% |
58.2% |
89.4% |
38.4% |
|
Females |
|||||||||
|
2010 |
7.7 |
30.1 |
35.0 |
27.4 |
17.7 |
15.8 |
10.0 |
5.3 |
17.1 |
|
2019 |
6.9 |
27.1 |
31.3 |
28.5 |
18.7 |
20.3 |
15.2 |
6.6 |
17.7 |
|
2023 |
8.4 |
41.8 |
35.7 |
20.9 |
18.5 |
13.9 |
11.4 |
4.9 |
16.5 |
|
2024 |
7.6 |
36.8 |
41.9 |
28.3 |
22.5 |
17.2 |
13.8 |
6.5 |
19.1 |
|
Change 19-24 |
10.7% |
35.9% |
34.0% |
(1.0%) |
20.6% |
(15.7%) |
(9.1%) |
(2.6%) |
8.4% |
|
Change 23-24 |
(9.1%) |
(12.0%) |
17.5% |
35.1% |
21.7% |
23.6% |
21.3% |
32.2% |
16.1% |
Source: National Travel Survey 2024, Department for Transport, sheet NTS0601.
As might be expected given the fall in commuting, the NTS shows a shift in the frequency of use of the railways, though not perhaps as large as might have been expected. The figures are in Table D below. The comparison between 2019 and 2024 shows a fall in those travelling three or more times a week from 5.1 per cent to 4.8 per cent, whilst there has been an increase in the proportion travelling once or twice a week from 3.7 per cent, also to 4.8 per cent. All the less frequent options show a recovery in the proportion, in two cases to above 2019 levels. The proportion who answered “less than once a year or never”, fell back to 40.7 per cent, one of the lowest levels ever recorded.
Table D: Frequency of Use of Surface Rail Services
Percentages
|
3 or more times a week |
Once or twice a week |
Less than once a week, more than once or twice a month |
Once or twice a month |
Less than once a month, more than once or twice a year |
Once or twice a year |
Less than once a year or never |
Total |
|
|
2010 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
10.2 |
15.5 |
20.5 |
43.4 |
100.0 |
|
2019 |
5.1 |
3.7 |
4.7 |
11.2 |
16.2 |
18.1 |
41.0 |
100.0 |
|
2023 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
10.9 |
15.9 |
18.4 |
42.0 |
100.0 |
|
2024 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
11.7 |
17.1 |
17.2 |
40.7 |
100.0 |
Source: National Travel Survey 2024, Department for Transport, sheet NTS0313.
* - The NTS is a household survey of personal travel, from data collected via interviews and a seven-day travel diary, which enables analysis of patterns and trends. In the year ending December 2024, the survey captured responses from 16,980 individuals covering 284,000 trips. The National Travel Survey results are tables are available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-travel-survey-2024.