63 LTAs saw bus patronage growth in 24/25

Only 12 get back to Pre-Covid levels as TfGM is fifth in growth league

Some measure of bus patronage growth was achieved in 72% of local transport authorities (LTAs) in England in the last financial year, according to new Passenger Trabsort Monitor analysis of the Department for Transport’s annual bus statistics. The growth achieved ranged from 19% in Herefordshire to 0.2% in Stockton-on-Tees. Greater Manchester was fourth in the growth league, on 10.7%.

However, only 12 of the 88 extant LTAs in England had reached or exceeded their 2018/19 total by March 2025 – whilst another four had got within 1% or so of that number (see table below).

Table 1: Local Transport Authorities achieving Full Covid Recovery

At the other end of the scale are authorities and operators still grappling with a complete failure to recover. Three authorities – South Yorkshire, Staffordshire and North Linconlshire – were still more than a third down on 2018/19 levels, with another 24 coping with a shortfall of more than 20%. There is no particular pattern to it, either – it is complete mixture of urban, semi-rural and rural authorities.

Growth between 2023/24 and 2024/25 does offer some more encouraging news, though. Comparisons here shown that 63 out of the 88 authorities achieved some measure of growth – ranging from as high as 19% to 0.2%. Aside from a statistical oddity in England’s smallest authority Rutland, the top authority for growth was Herefordshire on 19%, followed by Windsor and Maidenhead on 14.1% and Devon on 13.3%. Greater Manchester was fourth in the growth league, on 10.7%, just ahead of another five authorities – including Tyne & Wear - that exceeded 9%. It may just be a franchise is not a prerequisite to success after all. The top ten authorities are listed in Table 2.

Not all the news is good on this measure, though. Of the 25 authorities that did not achieve any growth in 2024/25, nine saw significant falls in patronage. The worst losses occurred in North Lincolnshire (9.7%), Blackpool (8.2%) and Lancashire (7.0%).

 Table 2: Local Transport Authorities with highest patronage growth in 2024/25

The Fare Cap Effect

There can be little doubt that the introduction of the £2 fare cap in January 2022 offered a powerful boost to passenger numbers. During the three years it was in force, patronage growth across England outside London was 13.8%. The growth in some areas more than 35% in six authorities, whilst another 19 achieved more than 20%. Of the balance, 29 saw growth of between 10% and 19% whilst 25 managed between 0.4% and 9.9%. Only six LTAs saw a decline, of which the heaviest were North East Lincolnshire (10.5%), Staffordshire (5.0%) and Torbay (2.5%).

The increase in the cap to £3 from January 2025 may be partially reflected in the 2024/25 figures, as patronage growth across England outside London was restricted to 1%, but the wide diversity of responses by different authorities makes it difficult to discern a pattern from three months’ data.

There is a strong risk that the hefty fare increases that have followed its ending in many places will drive all the gains away again, taking some of the pre-existing patronage with it. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this is indeed the case in many areas.

Older and Disabled passengers still staying away

The recovery prospects on concessionary travel continued to look bleak in 2024/25, with no authority seeing a recovery to pre-Covid levels of demand. The closest anybody came was the Isle of Wight, with a 12.5% shortfall, followed by Nottingham (15.3%) with both Windsor and Maidenhead and Blackpool tying on 15.4%. Only seven authorities were less than 20% short, with 35 between 30% and 39%, and another 16 between 40% and 49%. Two authorities carried less than half their pre-pandemic number – Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (51.3%) and Staffordshire (54.0%).

On a more positive note, some measure of growth in concessionary travel was achieved in in 2024/25 in the areas of 68 of the 88 LTAs, with the highest figure of 19.8% being seen in Herefordshire, followed by Devon on 17.1%.

 Table 3: Travel Concession Authorities with the highest annual growth in 2024/25

At the other end of the scale, eight authorities saw significant reductions in pass use of more than 3%. Highest losses were in Shropshire (7.3%), and Buckinghamshire (5.7%).

Comment

These figures, for bus passenger journeys by local transport authority, appear in the BUS01 set and give a very interesting snapshot of what has happened in different local markets over the last fifteen years or so, back to 2009/10. For many people, there is still a focus on post-Covid recovery, with a return to 2018/19 passenger levels often seen as a base point from which future growth can be plotted. Back in 2021, we warned that this would be a long job, unlikely to be realised in many areas before the end of the decade. On the basis of this analysis, that looks to be the pattern for many parts of the country.

In fact, this analysis is full of contradictory messages, and people can (and no doubt will) take what best suits their purpose from the figures. On the positive side, the fact that 72% of local authority areas saw patronage growth in 2024/25 is a very good result indeed, and could be taken as a vindication of the previous government’s policies both on the BSIP process and on the £2 fare cap.

However, the greatest risk on the fare cap was always going to be the difficulty on unwinding it. And indeed this is proving to be the case. Unsurprisingly, those who have faced a 50% fare increase from £2 to £3 have resented it, and in many cases have taken their trade elsewhere. Of course, the full extent of the damage will not be revealed until the 2025/26 statistics are published next October.

There are many in the wider industry who resent the government’s willingness to fund £300m worth of real-term fare cuts for mainly middle-class railway passengers concentrated in the prosperous South East, but not for the much less well-off bus passengers in the rest of the country. A strange imbalance of priorities for a Labour Government, one might think. For many people in our more deprived communities, the choice is not between modes but whether or not the journey can be afforded at all. When trips are rendered unaffordable, there is an inevitable consequence in terms of lower economic activity and retail footfall.

The less positive side of the analysis is the continuing shortfall in passenger numbers compared with the pre-Covid years, especially amongst elderly and disabled people.  For those groups, we can’t even give it away. Getting back to 2018/19 totals is an essential pre-requisite if the industry is to stand a chance of gaining the modal shift targeted by the government’s Carbon Budgets.

Equally, we have to realise that the radical change to working patterns and the way we shop that were induced by the pandemic are now part of a new reality. It’s another harsh reminder of the fact that – for all the policy shifts and marketing efforts we might deploy – the public transport industry lives in a world of derived demand. If people don’t want to travel, we can’t make ’em.