Further recovery in all areas, but wide variations between markets
A first look at the latest bus statistics published by the Department for Transport (DfT) shows that demand rose by 7.7% during the year ended 31 March 2024, putting total demand during year at 4,035 million passenger journeys, compared with 3,745 million in 2022/23. However, the total remained 15.7% below the 4,787 million carried in 2018/19, the last full pre-Covid year.
The figures show that demand rose in all parts of the country, but the proportions and the shortfall against 2019 varied widely between the sectors. Strongest growth was Wales, 17.4% up, but still almost 30% below 2019. In Scotland, passenger numbers grew by 11.2%, taking demand to within 10.8% of pre-pandemic levels. The English Shires number grew by 11.1% but remained 15.2% short. The Metropolitan areas enjoyed lower growth of 8.8%, leaving them 16.4% short of full recovery. In London, growth was the lowest in the country, at just 4.7%, leaving a shortfall of 15.9%.
Passenger Types
There were also big variations in the type of passenger that contributed to the growth. Separate statistics are published by DfT for journeys by elderly and disabled people and by other concession schemes such as those for young people or students, leaving the balance being the remainder – the full fare payers.
For elderly and disabled passholders, journeys totalled 737 million, 6.8% up. However, this was still 31.3% below the 2018/19 total of 1,073 million. Fastest growth was again in Wales, up 15.4% - but this still left the total 41% below the pre-Covid number. Next came London and Scotland, each with 7.8% growth – but the shortfall against 2019 was still over one-third in both cases. In England outside London, growth was much lower – 6.3% in the Shires and 4.0% in the Metropolitan areas, leaving them both over 45% short of pre-Covid numbers.
Youth and other schemes saw increased patronage as demand recovered and new schemes introduced under BSIP plans. Scotland, whose under 22 pass was introduced in January 2022, saw demand grow by almost 48%, taking the total to 73 million. The limited Welsh schemes saw growth of 41.7%, whilst the Metropolitan areas saw 13.5% more passengers. The Shire areas saw a more limited increase of 7.1%, whilst London’s long-established youth concession saw demand slump by 1%, leaving demand from this category of passenger some 23% below pre-Covid levels.
The numbers are summarised in the table and graph below:
| Passenger Type | London | English Mets | English Shires | Scotland | Wales | Great Britain |
| Concessions: elderly/disabled | 215 | 152 | 238 | 104 | 27 | 737 |
| Youth & Other | 304 | 85 | 31 | 73 | 4 | 496 |
| Fare-Paying | 1,330 | 519 | 757 | 157 | 40 | 2,802 |
| Total | 1,848 | 755 | 1,026 | 334 | 72 | 4,035 |
| % increase over last year | 4.7% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 7.7% |
| % shortfall against 2018/19 | (15.9%) | (16.4%) | (15.2%) | (10.8%) | (29.1%) | (15.7%) |
Passengers by Market Sector and Type, 2023/24
This left the fare-paying passengers. Growth was 8.1% across Great Britain as a whole, leaving the total 13.2% below pre-pandemic levels. Fastest growth was again in Wales, 16.7%, but still leaving a 25.2% shortfall. Next came the Shire areas of England, 12.8% up, taking the shortfall down to 8.2%. The Metropolitan areas experienced a 9.6% upturn, leaving them with a 13.2% gap against 2018/19. Next came London, where numbers were just 5.5% ahead, remaining 12.7% down on pre-Covid demand. Lastly, Scotland saw an increase of just 1.6% in fare-paying passengers, as demand growth seemed to be concentrated amongst the two types of passholder.
As the chart below shows, these changes mean that 53% of Scotland’s bus passengers are now travelling at the taxpayer’s expense, leaving just 47% actually paying a fare. In Wales, the paying proportion is 56.5%, increasing to over 70% in London and the English Shire areas.
Proportion of Passengers Carried by Passenger Type, 2023/24
Service Levels
Passenger growth was achieved with virtually no change in service levels, as measured by kilometres run. The statistics show a 0.1% increase to 1,975 million in Great Britain as a whole. However, three sectors showed a reduction in supply, including 4.3% in Wales, 2.8% in the English Shires, and 0.2% each in London and the English Metropolitan areas.
Across the whole country the reduction since the pandemic now stands at 14.9%. Wales has seen the greatest reduction, with kilometres run now 24.4% down. This was followed by the English Mets (17.6%), Scotland (15.9%), English Shires (14.8%) and London (4.8%).