Big shifts in London bus use - NTS

Shifts in journey purpose and demographics reinforce radical market change

The latest update to the National Travel Survey from DfT, about which I wrote recently (see National Travel Survey Update), also contains fascinating information about how much bus use in London has changed since the Covid-19 pandemic (see NTS update confirms major shifts in London bus trips). 

Demand for bus services in London generally is rising again, but still only slowly. Figures from the DfT show that in the first four months of this year, patronage averaged 90.2% of pre-pandemic levels, moving ahead of the 88.4% seen during 2023.

The NTS figures both underline and explain the shortfall, enabling us to map both the changes in journey purpose and in the age and gender of bus users. Looking back to 2010, a total of 472 million trips a year have been lost to the network, with the leading causes being reduced leisure travel (163m), falls in commuting (149m), fewer shopping trips (120m) and a reduction in travel for personal business (118m) and employers’ business (31m). These have been offset to some extent by a rise in education trips (115m). 

Looking at the demographics, the heavy falls in trip rates by men across virtually all the age groups are striking, as is the continued reduction in travel by older people – though again the fall amongst men is much greater than women. The fall amongst younger men may well be linked to lower levels of commuting and leisure trips. Of course, it won’t have helped that consumer spending remains below pre-Covid levels and that the overall economic performance since the pandemic has less than spectacular – especially in the capital whose position has been threatened so badly by Brexit.

The London bus network has survived the pandemic, as it has other crises in the past, but there is no doubt that it is damaged, and now has a markedly different market profile. There are still many uncertainties about the future – prompted not least by Saidq Khan’s plans to renationalise the operations. But at least the NTS data helps us to understand what is going on. 

Read the full analysis here: NTS update confirms major shifts in London bus trips