Report warns government on bus reform

"It's all about money," says editorial

A report on the future of the bus industry has warned the government that new legislation alone will not improve outcomes without the funding to go with it. The new report, Britain's Buses in a New Era, examines the industry's future prospects in the context of the changes that have taken place since 2010. 

It goes on to looks at the future of regulation, and identifies four key tasks to deliver the improvements that everybody wants:

• Improved performance
• Increased service levels
• Fleet decarbonisation
• Modal Shift & Net Zero

The report notes that, between 2009/10 and 2022/23:

• the industry outside London has seen a real-terms fall of 24% in revenue
• services were cut by 28%, with supported services seeing a 50% reduction
• passenger numbers fell by almost a third, but by 48% in Wales and 34% in Scotland
• unit operating costs per kilometre rose by over 12%
• unit operating costs per passenger rose by over 30%
• fleet size was cut by 30% and the average fleet age rose from 8.2 to 11.3 years.

Meanwhile, profit levels fell steadily even before Covid, and have virtually disappeared since, despite millions of pounds in government assistance, Without profits, the industry cannot service its debts or invest for the future.

Other headlines from the report include:

• Restoring services to 2010 levels could cost up to £2.7 billion year, and require capital spending in new buses worth up to £3.8 billion
• Decarbonising the fleet and going zero emission by 2035 requires capital spending of over £13 billion
• Without investment in bus priorities and other means of combating congestion, bus services are set to get slower as average traffic delays per mile are forecast to grow by more than a quarter between now and 2060

Writing in the report's editorial, author Chris Cheek commented, "Reducing congestion is key to delivering reliable and predictable services and will need additional funding. Faster journeys are more productive for users and operators alike and can help to keep fares down as well as attracting extra users."

On bus regulation, Cheek highlights the need for stability and some certainty to allow operators to invest. "Giving local transport authorities a permanent right to adopt a franchise model on a single committee or cabinet vote at any time would undermine this," he warns. "There would be no stability to allow long-term investment decisions to be made, whilst there would be a risk that such uncertainty would drive the remaining SME operators – already nervous of the costs and risks of zero-emission vehicles - out of the industry."

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