DfT stats show slowdown in new vehicles

ZEBs reach 8.3% but average fleet age increases

New figures released by the Department for Transport (DfT) as part of the Annual Bus Statistics show a slump in the delivery of new vehicles during 2023/24, as the average fleet age increased again. The statistics, based on operator returns, show that just 1.35% of the fleets were delivered during the year - representing 467 buses of various sizes. This compares with 1,582 in 2022/23 and an average of 2,500 plus between 2012 and 2018. As a consequence, the average fleet age stayed above 11 years and edged up once more.

Whilst attention has been focused largely on the reported increase in passenger numbers, the DfT's statistics contain a wealth of other information, covering kilometres run, passenger kilometres, revenue (though these will not be fully updated until January 2025), staff and vehicles.

Analysis of the vehicle statistics show that local bus operators in March 2024 reported a total fleet of 34,610 vehicles. The London fleet was recorded at 8,700 with an average age of 9.6 years, leaving 25,910 for the rest of Great Britain, at an average age of 11.28 years, up from 11.22 in 2023.  The rise in average age since Covid means that 20% of the fleet was aged 15 years or older – a total of 6,909 vehicles. At the same time, the total of more polluting pre-Euro VI vehicles in the fleets stood at 9,169 (27%).

The rise of zero-emission buses (ZEBs) continued, with the number reaching 2,886, representing 8.3% of the total fleet. London has led the way and was host to 1,474 of the ZEBs, 16.9% of the total. The remainder were split between the rest of England (805, 3.8%), Scotland (558, 14.4%) and Wales (109, 8.0%). 

You can see more details about the fleets in each market sector in the table below.

Fleet Analysis based on DfT Statistics at 31 March 2024

In our recent book Britain’s Buses in a New Era: the Opportunities and Threats Ahead, we estimated on the basis of the 2023 fleet analysis that the capital expenditure bill to replace the existing fleet with ZEBs would be of the order of £13 billion at current prices. The new figures have reduced the cost a little, but we estimate that it remains north of £12½ billion.

In response to a couple of questions that have been raised in response to this analysis, we feel that it’s important to say that this number was not included as “a big scary number” to argue that somehow decarbonising the fleet was unaffordable: the argument about getting rid of diesel buses is long over. Rather, it was calculated and included in the book because we felt that it was important to remind everybody of the sums of money that will need to be invested. Those funds will have to be raised from somewhere, and if the investment is to be funded by the private sector, then some degree of stability for the industry will be essential in order to reassure lenders that the interest due and the principal will be paid on time and in full.